World Cup Musings
The Cricket world cup begins in just over a week in the West Indies. Cricket's biggest event is all set to keep all us cricket lovers engaged for the next couple of months. It's always interesting to note the performances of different teams leading up to the world cup and see what kind of form they are in.
If we look at teams that have some semblance of a chance to win the cup, the list would probably comprise Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the West Indies.
Let us have a look at these teams and their chances. Beginning with the defending champions - Australia, they seem a bit out of sorts at the moment. Some of their key players have suffered major injuries, which is sure to affect their chances at the world cup. A month back, they were most certainly the favourites. They were playing spectacular cricket, and everyone was contributing. All of a sudden, Ponting has some hip injury, Clarke's back problem has resurfaced, Symonds has torn a muscle in his right hand and Lee is out of the world cup with an ankle injury. To add to all this, Gilchrist has looked out of sorts in the recent past. Hodge looks good when he does perform well, but has been quite inconsistent. Ultimately, it is just Ponting, Hayden and Hussey who seem to be doing all the scoring. The bowling looks totally off colour. They have failed to defend 336 and 346 in the last two games. Mcgrath is clearly not the bowler has was 3-4 years back. Without Lee, the bowling must be a real worry for Ponting. At the moment, given the injuries to key players and looking at the bowling, Australia do not seem to be on course to lift the cup this time. It is extremely sad for an Aussie supporter like me. Had they fielded their best team and yet been beaten by some other team playing better cricket, it wouldn't have been so sad, but knowing that they are going in with a team that is well below full strength, it looks almost unfair. Despite all that, I would be the last one to write off an Australian team. If they manage to get into the last 4, their experience of winning big matches would stnd them in good stead.
India, West Indies, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are very similar teams. They all have a decent chance of winning the cup, given that conditions in the West Indies are going to be similar to what these teams are used to playing in. The West Indian team is a decent ODI team. They have a pretty good attack with some good fast bowlers. Sarwan, Lara, Gayle and Chanderpaul form a formidable batting line up supported by Bravo and Samuels. Two things stand against the West Indies though: history and their own inconsistency. The hosts have never won the world cup so far. Also, the West Indians are capable of playing like champions on one day and like novices the very next day. On their day, they are capable of beating any team, but they are just as capable of losing matches that are firmly under their control.
India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are pretty similar in their strengths and weaknesses. All 3 teams boast of a strong batting line up, some explosive hitters, a decent pace attack and a good spin attack. Conditions in the West Indies would suit these teams the most. Pakistan have played well in the recent past. If Shoaib and Asif play, Pakistan would definitely have the best bowling attack of these 3 teams. Pakistan is the team most capable of upsetting the biggies, but they are just as capable of playing ridiculous cricket and losing very badly. I feel Pakistan is a pretty strong contender this year, especially because Australia are looking below par. I expect Pakistan to make it to the last 4.
India is going into the world cup with a lot of confidence. After a disappointing tour of South Africa, India has had 2 good tournaments against strong world cup contenders. India has 2 problems: their ability to lose games that they have all but won and their lack of success in big matches. With Sreesanth, Zaheer, Kumble and Bhajji, the bowling looks good. Sachin, Saurav and Dravid form the bulwark of the batting. They have some very capable support in Dinesh Kartik, Yuvraj and Dhoni. Sehwag, if playing well, is a match winner. He probably needs a couple of good scores to regain his form and confidence. India is another team which I think has a good chance of making it to the last 4, though I don't see India winning a big final against a strong team.
Sri Lanka is a good ODI team. They have a lot of utility players who can contribute with bat and ball. They are also the best fielding team from the sub-continent. Slow pitches suit their game the best. The return of Murali and Vass would definitely give them a huge boost. I don't expect them to get to the last 4, but they are cerainly capable of causing an upset or two, which may help other teams.
South Africa at the moment seem to be the hot favourites. They have played extremely well of late. They have chased down some huge totals, and when batting first, have managed to post mammoth scores. They also have the luxury of a lot of very good all rounders. Kallis is definitely one of the best batsmen in the world today and is also a very useful bowler. Pollock, Kemp and Boucher are capable of causing havoc in the slog overs. Add Gibbs and Smith to that, and you have a very powerful team, which is also in form right now. Australia have always been the thorn in SA's flesh, but with Australia looking below par, I would say SA are the favourites this time.
New Zealand is the other strong contender. They have had an amazing series against Australia and must be full of confidence. McMillan seems to be peaking in time for the world cup. LouVincent, Ross Taylor, Scott Styris and Jacob Oram are very good batsmen, who are also scoring runs at the moment. The worry for NZ is the lack of form of Astle and Fleming. The only thing that makes me skeptical about NZ is that their recent performances have all been on the fast and bouncy pitches in Australia and NZ. On slower and lower pitches, they might just find the sub-continent teams a bit too hot to handle. All the same, NZ is very capable of causing some upsets. If they manage to oust Australia before the Semi-finals, I'm sure SA would heave a huge sigh of relief.
England has been resurgent in recent times. After a horrendous Ashes series and poor performances until the last round of the VB series, they have effected a major turnaround led by Paul Collingwood. England has a lot of good batsmen like Strauss, Pietersen, Flintoff and Bell. The bowling looks good as well, with Panesar being a very effective spinner. All the same, I don't think England have it in them to win the world cup. I expect them to be ousted before the semi finals.
To sum up, these are my predictions:
Last 4: SA, Pakistan, India, Australia
Last 2: SA and India/Pakistan
Winner: SA / Pakistan
If we look at teams that have some semblance of a chance to win the cup, the list would probably comprise Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the West Indies.
Let us have a look at these teams and their chances. Beginning with the defending champions - Australia, they seem a bit out of sorts at the moment. Some of their key players have suffered major injuries, which is sure to affect their chances at the world cup. A month back, they were most certainly the favourites. They were playing spectacular cricket, and everyone was contributing. All of a sudden, Ponting has some hip injury, Clarke's back problem has resurfaced, Symonds has torn a muscle in his right hand and Lee is out of the world cup with an ankle injury. To add to all this, Gilchrist has looked out of sorts in the recent past. Hodge looks good when he does perform well, but has been quite inconsistent. Ultimately, it is just Ponting, Hayden and Hussey who seem to be doing all the scoring. The bowling looks totally off colour. They have failed to defend 336 and 346 in the last two games. Mcgrath is clearly not the bowler has was 3-4 years back. Without Lee, the bowling must be a real worry for Ponting. At the moment, given the injuries to key players and looking at the bowling, Australia do not seem to be on course to lift the cup this time. It is extremely sad for an Aussie supporter like me. Had they fielded their best team and yet been beaten by some other team playing better cricket, it wouldn't have been so sad, but knowing that they are going in with a team that is well below full strength, it looks almost unfair. Despite all that, I would be the last one to write off an Australian team. If they manage to get into the last 4, their experience of winning big matches would stnd them in good stead.
India, West Indies, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are very similar teams. They all have a decent chance of winning the cup, given that conditions in the West Indies are going to be similar to what these teams are used to playing in. The West Indian team is a decent ODI team. They have a pretty good attack with some good fast bowlers. Sarwan, Lara, Gayle and Chanderpaul form a formidable batting line up supported by Bravo and Samuels. Two things stand against the West Indies though: history and their own inconsistency. The hosts have never won the world cup so far. Also, the West Indians are capable of playing like champions on one day and like novices the very next day. On their day, they are capable of beating any team, but they are just as capable of losing matches that are firmly under their control.
India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are pretty similar in their strengths and weaknesses. All 3 teams boast of a strong batting line up, some explosive hitters, a decent pace attack and a good spin attack. Conditions in the West Indies would suit these teams the most. Pakistan have played well in the recent past. If Shoaib and Asif play, Pakistan would definitely have the best bowling attack of these 3 teams. Pakistan is the team most capable of upsetting the biggies, but they are just as capable of playing ridiculous cricket and losing very badly. I feel Pakistan is a pretty strong contender this year, especially because Australia are looking below par. I expect Pakistan to make it to the last 4.
India is going into the world cup with a lot of confidence. After a disappointing tour of South Africa, India has had 2 good tournaments against strong world cup contenders. India has 2 problems: their ability to lose games that they have all but won and their lack of success in big matches. With Sreesanth, Zaheer, Kumble and Bhajji, the bowling looks good. Sachin, Saurav and Dravid form the bulwark of the batting. They have some very capable support in Dinesh Kartik, Yuvraj and Dhoni. Sehwag, if playing well, is a match winner. He probably needs a couple of good scores to regain his form and confidence. India is another team which I think has a good chance of making it to the last 4, though I don't see India winning a big final against a strong team.
Sri Lanka is a good ODI team. They have a lot of utility players who can contribute with bat and ball. They are also the best fielding team from the sub-continent. Slow pitches suit their game the best. The return of Murali and Vass would definitely give them a huge boost. I don't expect them to get to the last 4, but they are cerainly capable of causing an upset or two, which may help other teams.
South Africa at the moment seem to be the hot favourites. They have played extremely well of late. They have chased down some huge totals, and when batting first, have managed to post mammoth scores. They also have the luxury of a lot of very good all rounders. Kallis is definitely one of the best batsmen in the world today and is also a very useful bowler. Pollock, Kemp and Boucher are capable of causing havoc in the slog overs. Add Gibbs and Smith to that, and you have a very powerful team, which is also in form right now. Australia have always been the thorn in SA's flesh, but with Australia looking below par, I would say SA are the favourites this time.
New Zealand is the other strong contender. They have had an amazing series against Australia and must be full of confidence. McMillan seems to be peaking in time for the world cup. LouVincent, Ross Taylor, Scott Styris and Jacob Oram are very good batsmen, who are also scoring runs at the moment. The worry for NZ is the lack of form of Astle and Fleming. The only thing that makes me skeptical about NZ is that their recent performances have all been on the fast and bouncy pitches in Australia and NZ. On slower and lower pitches, they might just find the sub-continent teams a bit too hot to handle. All the same, NZ is very capable of causing some upsets. If they manage to oust Australia before the Semi-finals, I'm sure SA would heave a huge sigh of relief.
England has been resurgent in recent times. After a horrendous Ashes series and poor performances until the last round of the VB series, they have effected a major turnaround led by Paul Collingwood. England has a lot of good batsmen like Strauss, Pietersen, Flintoff and Bell. The bowling looks good as well, with Panesar being a very effective spinner. All the same, I don't think England have it in them to win the world cup. I expect them to be ousted before the semi finals.
To sum up, these are my predictions:
Last 4: SA, Pakistan, India, Australia
Last 2: SA and India/Pakistan
Winner: SA / Pakistan
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