My world cup predictions
The world cup is just a week away now. This time, the excitement is nowhere near what it was last time, and I think it's largely because most Indian supporters know in their hearts that India doesn't stand much of a chance this time. In this post, I'm going to try and make my predictions for this world cup.
I'm not going to talk about the minnows like Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan etc here, as none of them is likely to make it to the last 8. I also don't think the West Indies and Pakistan have much of a chance. Both these teams lack the consistency to play well through a tournament and keep the momentum up till the end. They may win a couple of matches on the way, but I don't see them posing a major threat to the big boys like Aus, SA, NZ, SL and India.
India and Sri Lanka are the finalists from the 2011 edition, but I don't think either of them can go all the way this time. Sri Lanka has been a finalist in 3 world cups, but on all 3 occasions, the tournament was played in sub-continent like conditions. On the pacier pitches in Aus and NZ, Sri Lanka's batting will be found wanting, especially against teams having strong bowling attacks. They may make it to the top 8, but I doubt SL will go beyond that.
India, at least on current form, seems to be playing it's weakest world cup team of the last 19 years. The batting looks very fragile if Kohli fails, Ashwin hasn't had enough match practice, the opening pair is a disaster with Shikhar Dhawan, the death bowling is one of the worst in international cricket, and the spinners are simply unable to contain the run rate when the opposition gets off to a brisk start. Like SL, India will make it to the last 8 purely because there are enough minnows in their group to give them sufficient points. But if the opposition is a team like SA, Aus, NZ or even England, I don't see this team getting past in a semi final or a final. 2011 was India's best chance, playing at home with a really strong side, and they thankfully made the most of it. Until the bowling starts to fire regularly as a group, India is going to struggle to win major tournaments.
Which brings us to what I think will be the last 4 - Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and England. I pick England over teams like India and SL purely because their bowling attack can be a real handful on the faster and bouncier pitches of Aus and NZ, with Anderson and Broad being genuinely capable of running through any opposition. They also have a decent batting line up for the kind of conditions which are likely to be on offer. However, of these last 4 teams, I would say England is the weakest. My prediction for England is an exit in the semi finals.
NZ has always been a very good ODI side, and given that they will play most of their games on home grounds, they have a very good chance of being in the finals this time. They have played very well over the last couple of months and they have a settled line up which has been playing well together. NZ is also a team that is least likely to choke in a big final if playing against a strong team like Aus or SA. My concern with NZ is that having played all games in their country, they might end up playing the final in Australia, where the grounds are larger and the swing is lesser. They might just find that adjustment too much to make against a strong opponent on the big day. However, this tournament is a great chance for NZ, given that they are in good form and that they are playing at home. They have always had a lot of pluck and have always been a team that everyone is wary of. Statistically speaking, I wouldn't give them a better chance than Aus or SA, so if I had to make a prediction, my prediction for them is an exit either in the semi finals or in the final.
Aus and SA are easily the 2 strongest teams in the tournament. Both have a lot of firepower, in batting as well as bowling. Both field outstandingly well, and their battle is something the whole world would be keen to watch. Australia have a slight advantage playing at home, but I'd say, if SA ever had a chance of winning the world cup, this is it. Purely on a man to man basis, I think SA is a better team currently. Compared to the great Australian teams of the last 15 years, the current team looks less solid in the batting department. However, the one thing where Aus is miles ahead is in being able to find ways of winning tight games. If it comes down to nerves, I'd pick Australia. History is also in Australia's favour. If the final happens to be between these 2 teams, it is likely to be one heck of a finish. However, this time, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that SA would beat Aus in the final. If SA can't win with this team in these conditions with Australia not really as unbeatable as they have been in the past, then I really don't see them winning a world cup any time soon .
I'm not going to talk about the minnows like Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan etc here, as none of them is likely to make it to the last 8. I also don't think the West Indies and Pakistan have much of a chance. Both these teams lack the consistency to play well through a tournament and keep the momentum up till the end. They may win a couple of matches on the way, but I don't see them posing a major threat to the big boys like Aus, SA, NZ, SL and India.
India and Sri Lanka are the finalists from the 2011 edition, but I don't think either of them can go all the way this time. Sri Lanka has been a finalist in 3 world cups, but on all 3 occasions, the tournament was played in sub-continent like conditions. On the pacier pitches in Aus and NZ, Sri Lanka's batting will be found wanting, especially against teams having strong bowling attacks. They may make it to the top 8, but I doubt SL will go beyond that.
India, at least on current form, seems to be playing it's weakest world cup team of the last 19 years. The batting looks very fragile if Kohli fails, Ashwin hasn't had enough match practice, the opening pair is a disaster with Shikhar Dhawan, the death bowling is one of the worst in international cricket, and the spinners are simply unable to contain the run rate when the opposition gets off to a brisk start. Like SL, India will make it to the last 8 purely because there are enough minnows in their group to give them sufficient points. But if the opposition is a team like SA, Aus, NZ or even England, I don't see this team getting past in a semi final or a final. 2011 was India's best chance, playing at home with a really strong side, and they thankfully made the most of it. Until the bowling starts to fire regularly as a group, India is going to struggle to win major tournaments.
Which brings us to what I think will be the last 4 - Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and England. I pick England over teams like India and SL purely because their bowling attack can be a real handful on the faster and bouncier pitches of Aus and NZ, with Anderson and Broad being genuinely capable of running through any opposition. They also have a decent batting line up for the kind of conditions which are likely to be on offer. However, of these last 4 teams, I would say England is the weakest. My prediction for England is an exit in the semi finals.
NZ has always been a very good ODI side, and given that they will play most of their games on home grounds, they have a very good chance of being in the finals this time. They have played very well over the last couple of months and they have a settled line up which has been playing well together. NZ is also a team that is least likely to choke in a big final if playing against a strong team like Aus or SA. My concern with NZ is that having played all games in their country, they might end up playing the final in Australia, where the grounds are larger and the swing is lesser. They might just find that adjustment too much to make against a strong opponent on the big day. However, this tournament is a great chance for NZ, given that they are in good form and that they are playing at home. They have always had a lot of pluck and have always been a team that everyone is wary of. Statistically speaking, I wouldn't give them a better chance than Aus or SA, so if I had to make a prediction, my prediction for them is an exit either in the semi finals or in the final.
Aus and SA are easily the 2 strongest teams in the tournament. Both have a lot of firepower, in batting as well as bowling. Both field outstandingly well, and their battle is something the whole world would be keen to watch. Australia have a slight advantage playing at home, but I'd say, if SA ever had a chance of winning the world cup, this is it. Purely on a man to man basis, I think SA is a better team currently. Compared to the great Australian teams of the last 15 years, the current team looks less solid in the batting department. However, the one thing where Aus is miles ahead is in being able to find ways of winning tight games. If it comes down to nerves, I'd pick Australia. History is also in Australia's favour. If the final happens to be between these 2 teams, it is likely to be one heck of a finish. However, this time, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that SA would beat Aus in the final. If SA can't win with this team in these conditions with Australia not really as unbeatable as they have been in the past, then I really don't see them winning a world cup any time soon .
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