Will India skip the 3G wave??
When we were students in Engineering college, we heard of 3G - this amazing new wave that would revolutionize the way we worked, studied, accessed information, shopped........
We heard of how telecom companies in Japan were investing in this marvellous new technology and of all the things this would mean to consumers. We've come a long way since then and the momentum has completed shifted towards countries like China and India in Telecom as far as growth is concerned.
Today, we get to read stories of how telecom companies across the world have invested billions of dollars in 3G capabilities, only to find that the technology has not really set the world on fire the way it was touted to do. In fact, a lot of that investment is likely to end up as what accountants term a 'sunk cost', thanks to an emerging technology called WiMax.
The data rates and multimedia capabilities of WiMax are manifold that of what 3G ever had. Besides, the coverage area of WiMax is far greater, which means lesser investment to serve the same number of consumers. Indian cellular operators were looking to 3G as the next greatest innovation that would help them shore up greater revenues and enhance profitability.
Today, India adds the largest number of mobile subscribers month on month. Despite the scorching growth rate, teledensity in India is still hovering around the 15% mark. Therefore, with 85 out of every 100 Indians still not having access to their own telephone, there is still a huge market out there to be captured, before we reach a level of saturation like in the European and US markets. In that sense, there is possibly a 'digital divide' within the country. While a fraction of India's total telecom subscriber base is used to accessing the internet via the mobile phone, teleconferencing, and various other data and video applications, there is still a vast section of the populace for whom just having a mobile connection is something aspirational.
Indian telecom players still have the time to pull out of any planned investments in 3G. Leading handset manufacturers like Nokia and Motorola have already indicated that they plan to make handsets with WiMax capabilities. That is perhaps a harbinger of things to come and a more-than-subtle indication to Indian players as to which way the winds are-a-blowing!!!
The Indian economy has defied a lot of trends that economies around the world have followed. We went directly from an agrarian economy to a services economy without going though the manufacturing phase in between. We went directly from landline phones to digital mobile networks without the analog mobile networks in between. Even the pager, which was a great technological innovation, had a surprisingly short Product Life Cycle in India as the advent of mobile phones completely made the pager obsolete. I personally think that is the trend that mobile technology is going to follow in the future. I am sticking my neck out here and saying that we will directly go to WiMax, without the 3G wave in between!!!!!
We heard of how telecom companies in Japan were investing in this marvellous new technology and of all the things this would mean to consumers. We've come a long way since then and the momentum has completed shifted towards countries like China and India in Telecom as far as growth is concerned.
Today, we get to read stories of how telecom companies across the world have invested billions of dollars in 3G capabilities, only to find that the technology has not really set the world on fire the way it was touted to do. In fact, a lot of that investment is likely to end up as what accountants term a 'sunk cost', thanks to an emerging technology called WiMax.
The data rates and multimedia capabilities of WiMax are manifold that of what 3G ever had. Besides, the coverage area of WiMax is far greater, which means lesser investment to serve the same number of consumers. Indian cellular operators were looking to 3G as the next greatest innovation that would help them shore up greater revenues and enhance profitability.
Today, India adds the largest number of mobile subscribers month on month. Despite the scorching growth rate, teledensity in India is still hovering around the 15% mark. Therefore, with 85 out of every 100 Indians still not having access to their own telephone, there is still a huge market out there to be captured, before we reach a level of saturation like in the European and US markets. In that sense, there is possibly a 'digital divide' within the country. While a fraction of India's total telecom subscriber base is used to accessing the internet via the mobile phone, teleconferencing, and various other data and video applications, there is still a vast section of the populace for whom just having a mobile connection is something aspirational.
Indian telecom players still have the time to pull out of any planned investments in 3G. Leading handset manufacturers like Nokia and Motorola have already indicated that they plan to make handsets with WiMax capabilities. That is perhaps a harbinger of things to come and a more-than-subtle indication to Indian players as to which way the winds are-a-blowing!!!
The Indian economy has defied a lot of trends that economies around the world have followed. We went directly from an agrarian economy to a services economy without going though the manufacturing phase in between. We went directly from landline phones to digital mobile networks without the analog mobile networks in between. Even the pager, which was a great technological innovation, had a surprisingly short Product Life Cycle in India as the advent of mobile phones completely made the pager obsolete. I personally think that is the trend that mobile technology is going to follow in the future. I am sticking my neck out here and saying that we will directly go to WiMax, without the 3G wave in between!!!!!
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